Win-Loss Predictions for Every NBA Team Following Complete 2024-25 Schedule Release (2024)

The NBA's full 2024-25 schedule is out, which means it's time to break down the incoming win-loss records for all 30 teams.

Educated in part by the regular-season over-unders at FanDuel's Sportsbook and the fact that the league's total for wins has to match its total for losses, you'll find predictions for each squad below.

Before reading, though, bear in mind that we're firmly in the era of NBA parity. Fourteen of the 30 win totals from FanDuel are between 35 and 48. Only seven teams eclipsed 50 wins last season. And 19 teams had a net rating (net points per 100 possessions) over zero.

Just about every team in the league has a star talent. Most have at least two. Things are so tightly packed in the middle of the NBA that a team getting better doesn't even necessarily mean it'll total more wins than it did in 2023-24.

The predictions below reflect today's talent-rich league.

Over-Under: 35.5

The Atlanta Hawks breaking up the Trae Young-Dejounte Murray pairing could be enough on its own to make them a little better. Last season, they were comfortably better when Young was on the floor without Murray, and returning their trust in the offense to Trae should pay dividends on that end.

But Atlanta is also at least one fit in on a transitional phase. It should be giving plenty of developmental minutes to 2024's No. 1 pick, Zaccharie Risacher. Jalen Johnson had a mini-breakout last season, but he's still just 22 and has some runway between here and his peak, too.

Straddling two timelines has worked for some teams. And to the extent it helps them exceed that over-under, it will for the Hawks, too. But it still feels like they're a year or two away from a surefire playoff spot.

Over-Under: 58.5

Before the Boston Celtics fans redirect their ire from Steve Kerr to this slideshow, a spoiler alert: This may forecast the reigning champs failing to hit their over-under, but we're still predicting they lead the NBA in 2024-25 wins.

It's just that 59 wins is an awful lot for anyone. And outside of Kristaps Porziņģis missing 25 games, the Celtics had relatively solid injury luck last season. Only six teams had four-man lineups that logged more total minutes than Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown did together.

A few more minor absences here or there will make it tough for Boston to be above or around 60 wins for a second season in a row. Improvements from foes like the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks could make it harder to pile up in-conference wins, too.

But again, this is hardly a knock on Boston or its chances to repeat. It's bringing back the entirety of last season's best eight-man rotation with the aforementioned starters, Al Horford, Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard. Plus, there are some young talents like Jordan Walsh and Baylor Scheierman who can bump the ceiling a bit higher.

Until proven otherwise, this is the best, most talented and most balanced roster in the NBA.

Over-Under: 19.5

Despite appearing in just 27 games for the Brooklyn Nets in 2022-23, Mikal Bridges was fourth on the team in wins over replacement player. This past season, he was second.

And now, following one of the biggest trades of the offseason, he's on the New York Knicks.

With a series of deals that included the Bridges blockbuster, Brooklyn regained control of its own 2024 first-round pick and is without the organization's highest-profile player from 2023-24.

Few teams in recent memory have telegraphed an upcoming tank job quite like this. And if it results in the addition of a star talent like Cooper Flagg to the mix, great.

In the meantime, there will be plenty of losses, in spite of whatever spunkiness Cam Thomas or Nic Claxton bring to the table.

Over-Under: 29.5

It's hard to get a good read on the Charlotte Hornets when their lead playmaker and franchise cornerstone LaMelo Ball has struggled with unavailability to the degree he has. Over the last two seasons, he's appeared in just 58 games.

Perhaps just as concerning is the fact that over the course of his career, Ball's impact on winning has been relatively minimal. His basic per-game averages of 20.0 points, 7.4 assists, 6.2 rebounds and 2.9 threes are impressive, but Charlotte's net rating is only 0.2 points better when he plays.

The blueprint makes sense with him. His playmaking, Mark Williams' rim protection and rim running and Brandon Miller's sort of gap-filling game should all mesh. But it'll likely take decent leaps from all three to push into the play-in mix.

Over-Under: 27.5

The Chicago Bulls lost DeMar DeRozan and picked up Josh Giddey this summer, but it doesn't feel like their roster makeover is done.

Between now and February's deadline, it feels like we'll continue to hear rumors about potential Zach LaVine or Nikola Vučević deals, in spite of a reportedly sparse trade market for both.

Whether those two are with the Bulls for the duration of 2024-25 or not, mediocrity is likely on the way again. The only distinction may be how much time and opportunity Giddey has to be the clear primary playmaker.

At 21 years old, Giddey still has plenty of time between now and his prime, and Chicago should be intent on seeing how he and incoming rookie Matas Buzelis work together.

Over-Under: 47.5

The Isaac Okoro situation hasn't officially been resolved yet, but it sounds like he might wind up playing at least one more year with the Cleveland Cavaliers on the qualifying offer made to him weeks ago.

And if that happens, Cleveland will more or less be running it back in 2024-25.

The chemistry that's already developed between Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen should help this team exceed that over-under.

And if Kenny Atkinson can get a little more creative with the substitution staggering, the defensive problems that come from starting two small guards and the offensive ones that come from starting two centers could be mitigated.

Still, getting to 50 wins seems just a bit out of the Cavs' reach, given the presence of the Celtics and Sixers in the conference and the potentially revitalized Milwaukee Bucks in their division.

Over-Under: 50.5

Fresh off a somewhat unexpected trip to the NBA Finals, Luka Dončić and the Dallas Mavericks are forecast by the oddsmakers to be one of the best teams in the West, and for good reason.

Luka is one of the best scorers of all time (he's third in NBA history in career points per game). Kyrie Irving has settled into a perfect role as a dynamic secondary playmaker and scorer like he was alongside LeBron James. Dereck Lively II showed star upside as a rim-runner and defensive anchor. And the front office managed to make marginal improvements at three different wing spots by replacing Derrick Jones Jr., Josh Green and Tim Hardaway Jr. with Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall and Quentin Grimes.

Dallas should be even better next season, especially if Irving plays a few more games (he was limited to 58 in 2023-24). But as alluded to in the intro, that doesn't necessarily mean the Mavs will smash last season's win total (or this summer's over-under).

The West is still going to be a gauntlet.

Over-Under: 51.5

Plenty seem to have given up on the idea of the 2023 NBA champions as title contenders. Getting knocked out in the second round of the playoffs started that ball rolling, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope leaving in free agency gave it a lot more speed.

But Denver had a plan entering this offseason, and keeping KCP would've put the team over the dreaded "second apron" and made it impossible to execute that plan. With the hint of extra flexibility granted by Caldwell-Pope's departure, Denver was able to sign both Dario Šarić and Russell Westbrook, its two targets from the start of the offseason.

When you think of those two as replacements for the backup center platoon from last season and the Bruce Brown minutes from the year before, it's easy to imagine the Nuggets bench looking as solid as it has during the Nikola Jokić era.

What this plan really comes down to, though, is the potential of Christian Braun. He, not Westbrook, is the KCP replacement. And for this plan to truly work, he has to take a leap. Fortunately for Nuggets fans, there's some evidence he can.

Braun is only 23 years old. And last season, when he was on the floor with Jokić, he averaged 11.7 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.1 assists per 75 possessions, while shooting 39.5 percent from deep. Denver had a plus-14.3 net rating in those 914 minutes.

Caldwell-Pope, meanwhile, was at 11.2 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists per 75 possessions, with a 38.9 three-point percentage, when he shared the floor with Jokić. The Nuggets' net rating was plus-11.2 with that duo.

Of course, the caveat is that more of Caldwell-Pope's minutes came against starters, but there's at least reason to be optimistic about Braun's upside as the fifth starter in a group that already features the best player in the world (Jokić), an ideal lob threat (Aaron Gordon), one of the best shooters in the league (Michael Porter Jr.) and an all-time great playoff performer (Jamal Murray).

Over-Under: 25.5

The Detroit Pistons have been stuck at the bottom of the Eastern Conference for five years now. And even with a decent improvement (they won just 14 games in 2023-24), they're likely to be there again in 2024-25.

So, yes. Twenty-three wins sounds like a pretty low total. And it is. But a nine-win jump is nothing to sneeze at, and Detroit has the developing talent to pull that off.

Cade Cunningham's jumper still hasn't really translated from college, but he still possesses an intriguing combination of playmaking ability and size. Ausar Thompson is among the most dynamic creators and defenders in the league. And Jalen Duren has plenty of upside as a rim-running and -protecting big man.

Plus, though they didn't make many splashy moves this offseason, re-signing Simone Fontecchio and adding Tobias Harris, Hardaway and Malik Beasley gives Cunningham some bona fide, veteran catch-and-shoot threats to pass to.

If Ron Holland is better than expected as a rookie, or Jaden Ivey has a mini-breakout, Detroit might even threaten that over-under.

Over-Under: 43.5

Depending on the price, the Golden State Warriors landing Lauri Markkanen could've vaulted them back into the title contenders' tier. But whatever the Utah Jazz's price was, Golden State obviously didn't get there. Markkanen signed an extension with his current club that prohibits trading him through February's deadline.

So, after losing Thompson to the Mavericks and failing to land either of their big targets this offseason—Markkanen and Paul George—the Warriors may be relying on internal development to challenge the top of the West.

Stephen Curry just proved in the last two games of the Olympics that he's still more than capable of singlehandedly swinging big games with his shooting, but the rest of this roster is nowhere near the level it was during the height of the mid-2000s dynasty.

Brandin Podziemski, Jonathan Kuminga and Trayce Jackson-Davis may all have to take mini-leaps to threaten 50 wins.

Exceeding that over-under is a slightly different proposition, though. And even in spite of a slightly underwhelming summer, the Warriors likely did enough to be at least six games above .500. Buddy Hield can replace the shooting of a post-prime Klay. De'Anthony Melton gives them a point-of-attack defender who can knock down threes. And Kyle Anderson has long been one of the game's more versatile playmaking forwards.

Adding those veterans to Curry and Draymond Green should keep Golden State in the playoff hunt.

Over-Under: 43.5

One of last season's breakouts, the Houston Rockets smashed their 2023-24 over-under by nine wins.

And in 2024-25, on top of bringing back a loaded young core that includes Alperen Şengün, Jabari Smith Jr., Jalen Green, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore, Houston has a bona fide Rookie of the Year contender in Reed Sheppard.

On internal development alone, a three-win improvement almost seems like an overly conservative estimate for this group. But here again, we're dealing with the Western Conference.

The Rockets could look meaningfully better in 2024-25 and still finish with a win total in the high 30s. Improvement in the NBA isn't always linear, particularly in terms of winning percentage.

Over-Under: 47.5

Predicting a slight step back for the Indiana Pacers, who just made the Eastern Conference Finals and will now have Pascal Siakam for a full season, is tough. But you can't go over on the win total for every team.

And Indiana's 2023-24 profile is probably a little inflated by how many players were hurt in postseason series against the Bucks and Knicks.

Still, this is a team that can and probably will be in the hunt for a top-four seed in the East. A healthy Tyrese Haliburton is pretty much a guaranteed 20 and 10 every night. Siakam is a dynamic slasher and underrated distributor. Myles Turner has long been one of the game's more under-appreciated three-and-D centers.

With marginal improvements from players like Andrew Nembhard, Obi Toppin and Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana could make this prediction look silly.

Over-Under: 40.5

There's a temptation to go under with the Los Angeles Clippers. Being over the salary cap meant they had no way to truly replace the departing Paul George. And if Kawhi Leonard, who remarkably got to 68 regular-season appearances last year, struggles with availability (he averaged 38.3 games per year over the six previous seasons), a sub-.500 record is very much in play.

James Harden's reputation has probably taken more of a hit over the last couple years than it deserves (at least in terms of on-court ability), but it's hard to imagine a soon-to-be-35-year-old Harden lifting the motley crew that is the rest of L.A.'s roster to a ton of wins.

The more optimistic view, of course, is that Leonard will be able to repeat what he did last season. And if that's the case, the Clippers should at least win more than they lose.

Over-Under: 43.5

After going 47-35 and losing in the first round last season, the Los Angeles Lakers had a slew of role players and end-of-bench pieces pick up player options, essentially locking them into running it back (barring a trade).

As of this writing, the only meaningful additions to the team are late first-round pick Dalton Knecht and perhaps the most discussed incoming second-round pick of all time, Bronny James.

Starting with the former, if the experienced college scorer has a Jaime Jaquez Jr.-like impact, L.A. could be a little better than this projection suggests. He was passed on 16 times in the draft because of his age (23) and a perceived lack of explosiveness, but feel for the game and shooting can overcome both of those potential issues.

As for Bronny, there is sure to be plenty of hype about the first moment he plays with his dad. And he may well develop into a real NBA defender. But his sub-6.0 player efficiency rating and sub-40 true shooting percentage in summer league make it hard to imagine meaningful contributions to winning in 2024-25.

Still, even with the stagnant summer and a rookie class that isn't likely to blow anyone away, the Lakers still have a shot to get to the mid-40s in wins. They have two top-10 players in LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell can both get hot enough offensively to swing some games. And Rui Hachimura has quietly become one of the game's better fifth starters.

Over-Under: 47.5

It's easy to buy in on a Memphis Grizzlies bounce-back season.

In 2022-23, they went 51-31 and finished second in a loaded Western Conference. And merely getting Ja Morant back should get them close to that level (he was limited to just nine games due to suspension and injury in 2023-24).

But confidence that the Grizzlies will clear the 47.5-win over-under has at least a little to do with what happened while Ja was out.

Jaren Jackson Jr. got to develop a bit as a more prominent scorer. Ditto for Desmond Bane as a playmaker. GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr. both looked like rotation-caliber wings last season.

And if everyone hangs onto the lessons learned last season with Morant back in the fold, Memphis should be a near-lock to return to the playoffs.

Of course, there are questions. Morant has dealt with plenty of injuries throughout his career. And there could be a lot of pressure on rookie center Zach Edey. At the moment, he seems like the likeliest starter at the 5.

But those concerns seem borderline trivial in comparison to what Memphis just went through.

Over-Under: 44.5

At this point, we can pretty confidently count on Jimmy Butler missing some chunk of the Miami Heat's season. That alone makes it tough to predict an easy clearance of the over-under. But there are enough positives here to expect Miami to get to the mid-40s.

Over the last half decade, when Butler does play, the Heat comfortably win his minutes. He and Bam Adebayo give Miami one of the best defensive foundations in the league. And there's a ton of positionless playmaking around them from Jaquez, Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier.

The wild card here may be 21-year-old floor spacer Nikola Jović. If he shows even moderate improvement as a defender and creator (that second part almost seems like a given for Serbian players), the Heat's outlook suddenly gets a lot better.

Over-Under: 50.5

The Milwaukee Bucks were one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA last season. They fired championship-winning coach Mike Budenholzer in the summer of 2023, then fired his replacement, Adrian Griffin midway through 2023-24. They went for a big name to take over for Griffin, and then Doc Rivers had a below .500 record with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and a core that won it all just three years ago.

Of course, Giannis missing the playoffs with an injury obviously impacted how the campaign ended, but Milwaukee was a mess long before it was eliminated by the Pacers.

The defense finished the season ranked in the bottom half of the league. Lillard, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton are all on the other side of their primes. And Rivers has become known as much for his playoff shortcomings over the last 15 years as he is for his 2008 title.

But the Bucks still have Giannis, one of the two or three most physically dominant players in the league. And if he's available, they figure to pile up regular-season wins.

It also helps to land quality veterans like Gary Trent Jr. and Delon Wright on small deals, but this bet on the over depends almost entirely on Milwaukee's Greek superstar.

Over-Under: 52.5

This is one of the toughest unders to call in the league. The Minnesota Timberwolves still feel like a legitimate title contender, but the quality throughout the rest of the West could lower everyone's win totals from last season.

Fifty wins in this season, in this conference, would be a rousing success. And Minnesota has the star talent in the starting five to get there.

Anthony Edwards is coming off an Olympics in which he trailed only legends Curry, LeBron and Kevin Durant in points per game. Gobert is still one of the best rim protectors in the league. And Karl-Anthony Towns has willingly scaled his game down a bit to be one of the NBA's most talented floor-spacers.

Add Mike Conley's steady hand at the 1, Jaden McDaniels' defense and a versatile bench that includes Naz Reid, Joe Ingles and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and it's easy to see Minnesota finishing in the top four again.

Over-Under: 45.5

The New Orleans Pelicans spent much of the summer seemingly trying to move Brandon Ingram, presumably for a starting-caliber center. With Jonas Valančiūnas and Larry Nance Jr. gone, they don't really have one.

They could maybe turn this into an opportunity and lean into Zion Williamson being a point 5, but rebounding could become a pretty big issue in lineups with him there.

Beyond that logistical issue, though, New Orleans is plenty deep, talented and versatile.

In spite of some occasional moments when their offensive games clash, New Orleans has generally been better when Zion and Ingram play together. The Pelicans have three-and-D optionality with Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III. And CJ McCollum's in-between game makes him an important piece in the clutch.

Now that they have an All-Star point guard in the mix in Murray to set the table, everything will potentially fit together even better.

Over-Under: 53.5

The New York Knicks are going to be good. It might even be fair to consider them a bona fide title contender. And leaning into the 'Nova Knicks thing by adding Bridges wasn't just cool on the vibes front. He fits the team well.

With Bridges' low-maintenance, three-and-D game, he'll pull defensive attention away from Jalen Brunson's drives and add to the switchability of lineups with Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo.

Getting Julius Randle back from injury should help, too, especially if coach Tom Thibodeau can figure out how to separate as many of his minutes as possible from Brunson's (there's just too much ball-dominance with both on the floor).

But the loss of Isaiah Hartenstein is a big deal. His effort and passing did a lot to grease the wheels on both sides of the floor, and Mitchell Robinson has long had a hard time staying healthy.

That and improvements to a couple other East contenders make 53.5 wins feel just a bit too high.

Over-Under: 56.5

For the second year in a row, the Oklahoma City Thunder should be in the mix for the West's top seed. And that's even without the kind of injury luck they enjoyed last season.

OKC's roster legitimately got better this summer. Hartenstein addresses one of the few needs they had last season with his rebounding. He and Chet Holmgren are also versatile enough to play together.

Swapping Alex Caruso for Josh Giddey makes sense, too. He's smaller and doesn't have the same kind of upside, but Caruso's perimeter defense, timely shooting and low usage fit better with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Speaking of the second-place finisher for MVP, he'll be in that mix again this season. And with Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace both on the upward sides of their developmental curves, it's safe to assume the Thunder could be even better than they were in 2023-24.

But again, wins are going to be a nightmare to come by in the West. So, even if OKC is improved, it won't necessarily exceed 2023-24's win total.

Over-Under: 47.5

As with Houston, it's hard to imagine the Orlando Magic going anywhere but up.

Their two best players, Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, are 22 and 21, respectively. Both have legitimate power forward size, with legitimate wing games. They can create for themselves and others, get to the basket and have shown flashes of outside shooting ability.

If it all comes together for both, Orlando will threaten for 50 wins.

But even if there are still some growing pains (the likelier scenario), there's enough talent all over the rest of this roster for the Magic to get back to the playoffs.

Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Isaac are two of the best defenders in the league. Wendell Carter Jr. is a solid defensive anchor with some outside shooting ability. Cole Anthony is a good heat-check scorer. And KCP was a near-perfect addition as a veteran who'll take on tough assignments and space the floor without demanding a ton of time on the ball.

Over-Under: 52.5

George is a borderline perfect fit with the Philadelphia 76ers. With their dynamic inside-out two-man game between Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, they needed a good wing to fill the gaps. And George will do just that.

Beyond taking on difficult assignments, he's comfortable getting a significant chunk of his offense from catch-and-shoot opportunities. He can also attack off the dribble when he needs to, something Philly could use when one or both of Maxey and Embiid are out.

The Sixers adding George and then using the rest of their massive pile of cap space to fill out the rotation with heady veterans makes them very real title contenders.

It's just hard to imagine them much higher than 52 wins in the regular season, since we've grown so accustomed to both Embiid (43.3 appearances per season for his career) and George (52.6 appearances per season over the last five years) missing time.

Over-Under: 47.5

The first year for a superteam rarely goes as swimmingly as it did for the 2007-08 Celtics. So, the Phoenix Suns deserve a bit of a pass for their underwhelming 2023-24.

It takes time for multiple high-usage stars to figure out how to play together, and there are already signs Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal will do just that.

Durant already showed a willingness to scale his game down a bit with the Warriors. Booker just did the same thing in the Olympics. And this past season, when those two were on the floor with Beal, Phoenix was plus-7.5 points per 100 possessions.

If that trio is healthier in 2024-25, that alone should make the Suns closer to a 50-win team.

What really puts Phoenix in the mix for a top seed, though, is the absolute steals it got at point guard this summer. Monte Morris and Tyus Jones are exactly the kind of low-usage, low-mistake table-setters a team with three high-volume scorers needs. And the Suns got both of them.

Over-Under: 21.5

With apologies to Portland Trail Blazers fans, we're pegging them as this season's worst team (at least in terms of wins and losses).

With Malcolm Brogdon gone, Scoot Henderson figures to be more prominently featured. And though he had a respectable close to his first season, he still finished with the 939th-ranked box plus/minus among the 955 rookie campaigns of 1,000-plus minutes in the three-point era. It's fair to expect him to be better, but it's a long way from there to winning basketball.

There's tons of development between now and whatever the peak looks like for Shaedon Sharpe, too.

And while there are a few veterans like Deandre Ayton, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons who could push Portland away from the league's best lottery odds, trades of any or all of them before February's deadline could be on the table.

Over-Under: 46.5

Consider this another casualty of the West. We shouldn't necessarily expect the Sacramento Kings to be any worse than they were last season, when they went 46-36, but they could still wind up with a couple fewer wins.

Their division, in particular (which includes the Warriors, Clippers, Lakers and Suns), has five teams that can reasonably expect to be in the playoffs (or at least in the hunt for a spot). Fifty-win seasons are going to be hard to come by.

Still, the Kings figure to be a tough out every single night. De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis have become one of the league's most dynamic offensive duos. Keegan Murray is still on the way up. And getting Malik Monk to re-sign was a coup.

The biggest change, of course, is the addition of DeMar DeRozan. His lack of defense and outside shooting could be a bit of a problem, but DeRozan's playmaking, passing and mid-range game will give the attack an element it hasn't had before.

The two-man game with Fox and Sabonis may have gotten a bit predictable, and DeRozan is exactly the kind of wrinkle that can give Sacramento some life.

Over-Under: 36.5

It's tempting to go over here.

Victor Wembanyama had a legitimate All-NBA case last season, and that was with San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich insisting on turning Jeremy Sochan into a point guard (that may have been an intentional ploy to stack losses, but I digress).

In the few minutes that San Antonio played mostly traditional lineups, it was actually good. Like, really good. When Wembanyama shared the floor with Tre Jones (an actual 1) and Devin Vassell (a decent wing), the Spurs were plus-10.2 points per 100 possessions.

Now, they have Chris Paul to take the Jones minutes, while Vassell, Keldon Johnson and Sochan are all still in the mix.

San Antonio can be competitive if it wants to.

But the lure of one more high draft pick could be pulling the Spurs in opposite directions again. Adding Flagg to Wemby would be incredible. And San Antonio could once again lean into lineup experiments and young talent to stay in the lottery.

Over-Under: 30.5

Injuries and two-thirds of the trio coming over midseason limited the sample size a bit, but the Toronto Raptors were plus-3.8 points per 100 possessions when Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley were all on the floor.

With Quickley's slashing, Barrett shooting better in Toronto and Barnes continuing to have an impact as both a positionless defender and point forward, putting some stock in this foundation feels pretty safe.

The Raptors getting back into the playoff mix will take a little more than that, though.

Building around Barnes, which is the right call, will require a lot of high-end shooting. Gradey Dick might develop into that, but even that's not a guarantee.

This season still feels like an observational year. Toronto can spend it seeing who fits best alongside their 23-year-old All-Star creator.

Over-Under: 29.5

The Utah Jazz seem to have followed the same less-than-ideal blueprint in each of the last two seasons:

Extending Markkanen and taking him off the trade market through the deadline would seem to suggest they could be headed that way again, but there are also six first- or second-year players on this roster who need developmental minutes (Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh and Taylor Hendricks from the 2023 draft, and Isaiah Collier, Cody Williams and Kyle Filipowski from this one).

As good as Markkanen is as a play finisher, simply devoting more time to those six may be good enough to get Utah a decent shot at the No. 1 pick in the draft.

Over-Under: 21.5

Fresh off a 15-win season, the most significant change in the Washington Wizards' lineup might be a swap from Tyus Jones to Malcolm Brogdon at point guard. At this point in their relative careers, and given the injury history of Brogdon, that might not even be an upgrade.

And some of the veterans who are still around from last year's disaster, including Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole, may be spending much of the season auditioning to be traded before February. That doesn't always contribute to winning basketball.

And if any or all of those three are moved in rebuild-ready deals that return picks or young talent instead of win-now players, Washington's 2024-25 outlook could be even worse.

So why are we forecasting a little bump up in wins? Because 15-67 is really bad. Like, "hard to imagine a team possibly being that bad two years in a row," bad.

Jonas Valančiūnas is a competent starting 5. Bilal Coulibaly and Corey Kispert could both be better next season. And if Alex Sarr's combination of size and fluidity lead to a decent rookie campaign, then 20 wins are in play.